Modelling infectious diseases

Module Title:
Modelling infectious diseases
Module Code:

Module Content
  • Disease and mathematical models: type of diseases, characterisation of diseases, control of infectious diseases, mathematical models (what they can do, their limitations)
  • Concepts of mathematical modelling of infectious diseases
  • Simple epidemic models: Formulating deterministic Susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, SIR model without demography (threshold, epidemic burnout), SIR model with demography (equilibrium state, stability properties, oscillatory dynamics, mean age, ...)
  • Infection- induced mortality and SI models (mortality throughout, infection, mortality late in infection, fatal infections, ...
  • Without Immunity, waning immunity and SIRS model
  • Adding a latent period and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model
  • Infections with a carrier state
  • Discrete-time models
  • Parameterisation (estimating risk of infection R0, from reported cases, seroprevalence data, estimating parameters in general,)
  • Models for describing STI and HIV transmission and control;
  • Analyses of serological data: methods for estimating age and time-dependent transmission rates and their application for developing models of the dynamics of infections;
  • Models of the dynamics and control of vector-borne diseases, tuberculosis
  • Spatial models (concepts of heterogeneity, interaction, isolation, localised extinction, metapopulations, lattice-based models, individual based models)
  • Networks, Model choice
  • Control of infectious diseases and case studies in infectious diseases